Non-ferrous metals: Shanghai aluminum stabilized and rebounded, waiting for demand recovery

Views:1998 Author:Site Editor Publish Time:2022-05-12 11:53:45 Orgin:Site

share

　　In the first quarter of 2022, China's electrolytic aluminium production capacity generally entered the resumption rhythm, the end of the first quarter domestic electrolytic aluminium built capacity of 44.07 million tons, running capacity of 3.97 million tons near, running capacity than the end of last year a combined increase of 2.276 million tons, electrolytic aluminium industry start-up rate recorded a high of 90.8%. The rebound of domestic electrolytic aluminium start-up in the first quarter, mainly concentrated in last year due to power restrictions and double control shutdown and the resumption of production capacity, including cloud aluminum and Shenhuo and other enterprises to resume production of more than 1.38 million tons; new production capacity totaled about 420,000 tons, mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Guangxi.

　　In 2022, domestic coal prices returned to a reasonable range, Yunnan and other places of power tension has been effectively alleviated, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity to enhance a better guarantee. Therefore, with Yunnan, Guangxi and other places to be resumed and new production capacity smoothly put into production, is expected to continue to maintain growth in the second quarter domestic running capacity, May or will reach 40.8 million tons of high level near.

　　Overseas disturbances still exist, depot support prices

　　At the beginning of 2022, as international geopolitical conflicts continue, energy prices in Europe and other places continue to climb, the supply side of the overseas market electrolytic aluminum interference. At present, European electricity prices are still maintained at a high level, electrolytic aluminum plant cost pressure is huge, do not rule out the existence of some aluminum plant to reduce the phenomenon of stopping production.

　　This year China due to coal and other energy prices are relatively stable, electrolytic aluminum plant profit level is still maintained at a high level. the end of April domestic electrolytic aluminum production average profit level of about 3,250 yuan / ton, sufficient profit space for aluminum plant to resume production and new investment has greater attraction. At present, the domestic operation of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, the cost advantage of obvious concentration in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other thermal power costs lower enterprises, coal prices are stable, so that the advantages of self-provided power plants again.

　　Inventory, at home and abroad aluminum ingot are showing a slight downward trend. As of early May, the LME aluminum ingot inventory fell slightly, and has now dropped to 560,275 tons. Domestic, the beginning of May on the aluminum ingot inventory inventory of 147,990 tons, domestic aluminum ingot social inventory of about 1,068,000 tons, May Day holiday to slightly basement.

　　In April, the domestic epidemic impact is more obvious, transport and downstream resumption of work still exist interference. With the domestic epidemic gradually under effective control in mid-to-late May, the suppressed downstream demand season or gradually recovered, is expected to turn to the trend of aluminum ingot inventory again.

　　Aluminum export high boom, domestic consumption or orderly recovery

　　In early 2022, China's aluminum exports remain high boom. According to customs data, in March 2022 China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum about 594,000 tons, January-March exports of about 1,628,300 tons, an increase of 26.7% year-on-year, a quarter hit a record high.

　　On the domestic demand side, due to the impact of this wave of domestic epidemic that started in March, aluminium downstream producers and consumption areas are more obviously disturbed. East China many places to take sealing control measures, the impact of local enterprises of material transportation, raw materials and products transport double-sided capacity decline, the domestic aluminum downstream mainstream consumer Shanghai, Wuxi, Guangdong and other places to reduce the arrival.

　　General situation, aluminum downstream small and medium-sized enterprises conventional inventory in about 3-5 days, the continuation of the epidemic in mid-April has caused some enterprises to stop production. With the end of the month in Shanghai and other places to promote the orderly resumption of work and production, downstream processing enterprises to start a certain rebound, most enterprises just before the holiday to replenish stocks. After the May Day holiday, aluminum downstream processing enterprises are expected to continue the rhythm of recovery.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)